For families who have been tracking National Merit for the past few years, this year’s results probably caused some whiplash.
After the Class of 2026 produced record-high Semifinalist cutoffs in 21 states, the Class of 2027 moved dramatically in the opposite direction.
California fell from 224 to 220.
Florida fell from 219 to 216.
Illinois fell from 222 to 218.
Texas fell from 222 to 219.
Alabama dropped from 214 to 210.
Wisconsin fell to 212.
Tennessee reached a state record low of 214.
And several other states experienced declines of two, three, four or more Selection Index points. As of this writing, some state cutoffs are still being confirmed through student reports, but the national direction is unmistakable.
The national Commended cutoff also dropped from 210 to 208.
Compass Prep, which tracks National Merit cutoffs each cycle with confirmed state-by-state data, projects no new state records for the Class of 2027 — a stark reversal from the Class of 2026.
So what happened?
Did students suddenly get worse?
Did the PSAT get dramatically harder?
Did National Merit change the rules?
And most importantly: what should the Class of 2028 do differently when they take the PSAT in October 2026?
The answer is not to assume next year’s cutoffs will stay low.
The smarter lesson is to understand just how volatile National Merit scoring can be and prepare for the score you can control rather than betting on a cutoff you cannot.
First, This Was a Big Drop
National Merit cutoffs always move. A point here. A point there. That is normal.
What makes the Class of 2027 unusual is how widespread the declines appear to be.
The Class of 2026 had historically high cutoffs in many states. This year’s confirmed results show declines across much of the country, with some states approaching or reaching record lows.
The National Merit Scholarship Corporation officially announced more than 16,000 Semifinalists for the 2027 competition on September 9, 2026.
The number of Semifinalists did not suddenly explode. The scores required to become one changed.
That tells us something important.
National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs are not fixed standards like: Score 220 and you qualify. They are competitive thresholds determined by how students perform in a particular year and by each state’s allocation of Semifinalists.
You are competing against the score distribution. And that distribution can move.
Why Did the Cutoffs Fall?
We cannot know every reason with certainty. But the score data give us a strong clue.
When PSAT results came out, there were substantially fewer students at the very top of the scoring range. Approximately 52,400 students scored 1400 or higher on the October 2025 PSAT — about 16% fewer than the prior year.
That matters because those are largely the students competing for National Merit recognition. Fewer extremely high scorers means fewer students clustered at very high Selection Index values. And when that happens, the cutoff has room to fall.
Last Year May Have Been the Outlier
Families looking only at this year might conclude: “The PSAT became harder.”
Maybe.
But another possibility is that the previous year was unusually favorable to high scorers — particularly in Reading and Writing. The 2024 PSAT administration produced an approximately 18% increase in students scoring 700–760 in Reading and Writing. That surge helped produce the unusually high Class of 2026 National Merit cutoffs.
Then the distribution moved sharply back for the Class of 2027.
So instead of thinking 2027 scores collapsed, it may be more useful to think: 2026 scores were unusually elevated at the top of Reading and Writing, and 2027 moved back toward more typical levels.
That distinction matters when planning for next year. Betting that 2027 represents a permanent new normal could be a very expensive mistake.
National Merit Is Not Based on Your PSAT Total Score
This is where many families still get tripped up.
National Merit does not use the 320–1520 PSAT total score to determine Semifinalist status. It uses the Selection Index.
The calculation is:
Selection Index = (2 × Reading and Writing + Math) ÷ 10
The maximum is 228.
And notice what happened there: Reading and Writing counts twice.
That means two students can have exactly the same PSAT total score and very different National Merit Selection Indexes.
For example:
Student A Reading and Writing: 730 / Math: 690 / PSAT Total: 1420 Selection Index: (730 × 2 + 690) ÷ 10 = 215
Student B Reading and Writing: 690 / Math: 730 / PSAT Total: 1420 Selection Index: (690 × 2 + 730) ÷ 10 = 211
Same total score. Four-point difference in National Merit Selection Index.
That can easily be the difference between Semifinalist and not qualifying.
This is why National Merit preparation should not simply be generic PSAT preparation.
Reading and Writing Is Disproportionately Important
This year’s cutoff movement makes that even clearer.
Because Reading and Writing is double-weighted in the Selection Index, changes at the top of the Reading and Writing distribution have an outsized impact on cutoffs.
Imagine you can realistically improve either Math from 710 to 720, or Reading and Writing from 710 to 720.
A ten-point Math improvement adds one Selection Index point.
A ten-point Reading and Writing improvement adds two Selection Index points.
That does not mean Math is unimportant. It means the preparation strategy should reflect the scoring system you are actually competing under. For National Merit, Reading and Writing deserves special attention.
Do Not Prepare for This Year’s Cutoff
This is probably the biggest strategic lesson for the Class of 2028.
Suppose your state fell from 220 to 216 this year. It is tempting to say: “Great. We only need a 216.”
No.
You needed a 216 this year. Next year is a new test administration, a new score distribution, and a new group of students.
Cutoffs routinely move from year to year, and smaller states can experience particularly large swings. Historical data show that state cutoffs can move several points even when the overall National Merit program itself has not fundamentally changed.
A student cannot control that. Do not build the preparation strategy around guessing the minimum score that might qualify. Build it around creating a margin of safety.
The Goal Should Be a Buffer, Not the Cutoff
There is a psychological difference between these two goals:
“I need a 216.”
and
“I want to be comfortably above the likely qualifying range.”
The second is a much better strategy.
If your state historically moves between 217 and 221, targeting 218 because last year happened to be low is unnecessary gambling. Target the upper end of the historical range or above it.
Why? Because there are too many variables you do not control:
- the difficulty of the test
- the scoring scale
- the number of high scorers in your state
- the performance of students across the country
- the distribution of Reading and Writing scores
- where the actual cutoff ultimately lands
Your student controls exactly one thing: how well they perform.
Create enough margin that the cutoff becomes less interesting.
One or Two Questions Can Matter Enormously
At this level, students are not trying to move from average to above average. They are operating near the ceiling of the test. That means a very small number of mistakes can have a very large impact.
Especially in Reading and Writing.
Because Reading and Writing is double-weighted for National Merit, a careless mistake there can potentially have twice the Selection Index impact of the same score movement in Math.
For a student near the cutoff, there is a significant difference between:
“I know how to answer this.”
and
“I answer this correctly almost every time.”
National Merit is an accuracy game. The student may already know nearly all of the content. The challenge becomes eliminating:
- careless reading
- rushed decisions
- misinterpreted wording
- unnecessary second-guessing
- repeated trap-answer patterns
That is a different kind of preparation than simply covering more content. It is exactly the kind of issue that generic test prep is not built to diagnose.
Start With the Selection Index, Not a Generic PSAT Score Goal
A student targeting National Merit should know three numbers before serious preparation begins:
1. Their current Selection Index Take a realistic diagnostic PSAT and calculate it. Do not rely on GPA, SAT estimates, or a generic percentile.
2. Their state’s historical cutoff range Do not use one year in isolation. Look at several years. The Compass Prep cutoff tracker is the most reliable public resource for this.
3. Their target Selection Index Set the target above the anticipated cutoff, not directly on it.
That immediately changes how you approach preparation.
Suppose a student has Reading and Writing: 680 / Math: 750. Their PSAT total is already an excellent 1430. But their Selection Index is only:
(680 × 2 + 750) ÷ 10 = 211
If that student lives in a highly competitive state, more Math work is probably not the highest-value use of time. The obvious opportunity is Reading and Writing.
A generic prep program may see a 1430 and say: Great score. A National Merit strategy should say: We need to fix the imbalance.
The SAT Strategy and National Merit Strategy Are Not Identical
They overlap heavily. But they are not exactly the same.
For the SAT, every ten points is simply ten points toward the total. For National Merit, ten Reading and Writing points have twice the Selection Index value of ten Math points.
That means a student preparing simultaneously for the SAT and National Merit may sometimes need slightly different priorities.
A student with 760 Math and 690 Reading and Writing may have relatively little room left to improve Math. More importantly, moving Reading and Writing has dramatically greater National Merit value.
The goal is not simply to raise the PSAT. It is to raise the part of the score that matters most for this student’s specific objective.
The Digital PSAT May Be More Volatile Than Families Expect
There is another factor worth watching.
The PSAT is now digital and adaptive. We do not yet have decades of experience with the current digital format.
The recent swing from unusually high Class of 2026 cutoffs to sharply lower Class of 2027 cutoffs is a reminder that top-end score distributions can change more than families expect.
That does not prove the digital test itself caused the decline — there are too many variables to make that claim. But it does mean families should be cautious about assuming that last year’s cutoff predicts next year’s with any precision.
The safest strategy remains the same: do not prepare to barely qualify. Prepare to remove the cutoff from the conversation.
What Should the Class of 2028 Do Now?
For juniors taking the PSAT this October, the test is close enough that preparation should now be targeted.
Know your current Selection Index. Take a realistic digital PSAT and calculate it. Do not rely on GPA, SAT estimates, or a generic percentile.
Identify where the points are being lost. Is the student missing grammar and conventions? Transitions? Vocabulary in context? Inference questions? Algebra? Advanced math? Data analysis? Or is the problem not content at all — is it pacing, careless errors, or decision-making under time pressure? Those require different solutions.
Prioritize Reading and Writing when appropriate. Because of the double weighting, Reading and Writing improvement can have disproportionate National Merit value. Preparation should account for the Selection Index rather than treating both sections as strategically identical.
Practice the digital format. Do not make the real PSAT the first time the student experiences adaptive modules, digital navigation, built-in tools, or the pacing of the digital test. Students should be comfortable enough with the interface that test day is about solving questions — not learning the software.
Train for accuracy at the top. A student chasing National Merit may not need hundreds of additional basic questions. They may need detailed review of the five questions they missed. Why did they miss them? Was the content unknown? Was the approach inefficient? Did they misread one word? Did they fall for the same trap twice? The fewer questions a student misses, the more important each mistake becomes.
What This Year’s Decline Does NOT Mean
It does not mean National Merit suddenly became easy. More than 16,000 Semifinalists were still selected from a very small fraction of graduating seniors.
It does not mean future cutoffs will continue falling.
It does not mean a student should aim several points lower because this year’s class got lucky.
And it definitely does not mean families should wait until scores come out and hope the cutoff moves in their favor.
Hope is not a testing strategy.
There Is One Good Thing About Cutoff Volatility
It reminds us what students can and cannot control.
You cannot control whether your state’s cutoff lands at 216 or 222. (Note before publishing: confirm this range matches the specific states you intend to reference.)
You cannot control whether the test produces more top Reading and Writing scores next year.
You cannot control how 1,200,000 other juniors perform.
But you can control preparation. You can identify weaknesses early. You can understand the scoring system. You can focus your time where it produces the greatest return. And you can aim high enough that a one- or two-point cutoff swing does not determine the outcome.
That is a much better place to be.
Final Thought
The Class of 2027 just received some unexpectedly good news.
National Merit Semifinalist cutoffs fell sharply across much of the country after an unusually high year. For students sitting just below last year’s cutoff, that decline may have turned disappointment into Semifinalist status.
That is wonderful for them.
But the Class of 2028 should not build a strategy around getting the same break.
The lesson from this year is not: National Merit got easier.
The lesson is: National Merit cutoffs move more than you think.
So do not chase the cutoff.
Understand the Selection Index. Pay attention to the double weighting of Reading and Writing. Know exactly where your student is losing points. And build enough margin that when next September arrives, you are not refreshing cutoff predictions hoping for one more point.
The best National Merit strategy is to make the cutoff somebody else’s problem.
